Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer

Forecasting Binary Outcomes∗

Binary events are involved in many economic decision problems. In recent years, considerable progress has been made in diverse disciplines in developing models for forecasting binary outcomes. We distinguish between two types of forecasts for binary events that are generally obtained as the output of regression models: probability forecasts and point forecasts. We summarize specification, estim...

Forecasting Surgical Outcomes Using a Fuzzy-Based Decision System

Background and objectives: The kidneys of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients do not have enough function and hemodialysis (HD) is a common procedure for their treatment. HD requires vascular access surgery (VAS) and arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is a low-complication method in VAS. However, different rates of AVF failure have been reported worldwide which can cause repeating s...

Forecasting for stationary binary time series

The forecasting problem for a stationary and ergodic binary time series {Xn}n=0 is to estimate the probability that Xn+1 = 1 based on the observations Xi, 0 ≤ i ≤ n without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process {Xn}. It is known that this is not possible if one estimates at all values of n. We present a simple procedure which will attempt to make such a prediction infinitely often ...

Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play

This paper forecasts match outcomes in test cricket in play, session by session. Match outcome probabilities at the start of each session are forecast using a sequence of multinomial logistic regression models. These probabilities can assist a team captain or management in considering a certain aggressive or defensive batting strategy for the coming session. We investigate how the outcome proba...

Modelling Binary Outcomes